Check Your Assumptions At The Door
Yesterday, my friend and agent Bob Fleck posted a little essay on his LiveJournal which I liked a lot and asked him if I could repost it here today. Enjoy –Janet
You’ve probably heard about the The PW piece about Joe Konrath’s Amazon deal, and Joe’s understated and subtle response (If not, look here). Notably, in the comments to Joe’s response are a number of people repeating once again that Joe’s experience spells the death of traditional publishing, just as predictably one of the agents PW spoke with said that Joe’s experience was a flash in the pan we’d all forget about in a few years.
Being a somewhat scientifically minded person (I majored in physics and mathematics at college before making the brilliant decision to drop out in favor of a life in publishing), I thought to apply a bit of scientific method to my examinations. Of course, we have Joe’s results on Kindle that he has been proudly touting quite heavily to the world. In addition, a couple of my clients have been doing differing experiments with Kindle and other electronic book sales.
One of these is a wonderful mystery writer client of mine, Vicki Tyley, who’s from Australia. After a lot of effort, I’d been unable to sell Vicki’s THIN BLOOD, in large part because most of the publishers refused to even look at the book. “Americans don’t want to read Australian mysteries,” I was told. At least one conglomerate appears to have this as a standing rule from Marketing to Editorial: Don’t even think about bringing us an Australian mystery.
Finally, last fall, Vicki and I decided on an experiment. Starting with Smashwords, she released the book electronically, with a one-month free promotion. That received such a good response that Suspense Magazine actually selected Vicki as their featured New Author for April–for an electronic book which, at the time, was only available on Smashwords. At the end of April, Vicki made the book available on Amazon’s Kindle, selling for 99¢, and announced it. Really, that’s about all the promotion either one of us did. Then, we waited to see what would happen. As of today, May 25, THIN BLOOD is the #1 Mystery title among all non-free titles available on Kindle, and #20 among all paid titles on Kindle, regardless of genre. (The new Steig Larsson release may have shifted that after I started writing this.)
Now, I remember thinking when Joe started off with his stuff that certainly Hyperion having helped develop his name made a huge difference. But just the fan base from his physical books couldn’t really account for his electronic sales. Now, here’s Vicki, a complete unknown from Australia. No fan base. Just a damn good book, and her sales have grown each day, by huge leaps. 10 books, then 20, then 50, then 70, then more than 130 books in a single day for a completely unknown author. So, let’s toss out name recognition as an assumed cause.
Is it the price? Well, maybe that helps, but look at the top 50 titles on Amazon Kindle and you’ll see that there’s only one other at 99¢, and that’s a guide to the Kindle itself. What predominates the Kindle chart, regardless of price, is a lot of the same big best-selling names that dominate all the other sales charts. Clearly the “we won’t buy books over $9.99″ boycott people aren’t being all that effective, as several $12.99 books are sitting quite comfortably on the charts. So, let’s toss out that assumption.
However, on the other hand, I have my client David Niall Wilson who’s starting to release backlist titles on Amazon from himself and other’s through his joint-venture Crossroad Press Digital Publishing. Dave has been publishing for a long time (I remember having an editorial argument 20 years ago over one of Dave’s stories at the small press magazine I was then managing editor of). He’s won two Bram Stoker awards, he’s written some absolutely amazing books–books that readers have quite literally said changed their lives. The Crossroads Press titles haven’t run up the charts so far, but Dave himself says that he hasn’t gotten onto the Kindle boards to do much in the way of announcing them.
He has posted every new title through his Twitter feed (@David_N_Wilson), which is followed by more than 6,000 people. Joe has a Twitter feed (@jakonrath) that’s followed by about 2500 people. Vicki has no Twitter feed at all.
So, perhaps it’s the announcing of the books on the Kindle boards, but that alone can’t be it. A lot of people announce their books on the Kindle boards. What makes Joe’s books move so well? What made Vicki’s book take off? And why are other books stalled? Perhaps it’s the quality. I certainly don’t have the time to read every new book released on Kindle (I have enough reading trying to catch up with my clients–the prolific, wonderful lot of them).
It seems to me that for now, we need to check all our assumptions at the door. There are too few data points, and they’re often contradictory. I’m getting too tired and out of shape to go leaping to conclusions these days (I’ll leave that to younger and more energetic types). I’m just enjoying the ride while I try to figure out what makes it run.